MEGA Trading Post/Short Thoughts Mash-Up June 2, 2026
Trades, Short Philosophy, SpaceX bits, and Memory Chips Misremembering
The wonderful people that Cassandra Unchained’s subscriber Chat discussions have gathered is unique among discussion boards in my experience. The elevated tenor and many expert opinions, as well as the gentle treatment of each other, reminds me of the early days on techstocks.com (circa 1996). I sincerely appreciate the active commentary and sense of community therein.
All subscribers ought check out the Chat discussion area. I daresay that many can learn from others in the Chats, not just me. I do.
A couple of recent threads concern my sneak peak into Part IV of the Heretic’s Guide,
and a Chat concerning SpaceX’s S-1 filing.
There are many different threads at this point, and I do respond to threat topic requests. I participate in every Chat.
Perusing and participating in these threads, I get the sense that many are waiting or hoping for a market crash, as they are positioned for such. And of course, I understand that feeling, as I have written extensively about potential weaknesses in current valuations as well as the AI narrative writ large.
However, there is a big difference between positioning conservatively in a rich market and actively shorting the market directly with puts and derivatives.
Actively shorting is a highly risky activity. One can never make very much shorting. A prudent short cuts losses quickly, and one ought not double down in a short. This limits losses, but as bull markets are the rule, it can lead to death by a thousand cuts.
If a short on a common stock or bond works out, the theoretical maximum gain is 100%, and in practice it is much less than that
Shorting is a world filled with slippery slopes and sand castles. The sand castles are real, and vulnerable, but the slippery slopes drive men insane and ultimately prevent most from being properly positioned when the castle is washed away.
My portfolio is mostly long most of the time. When markets get rich I raise cash by not deploying fresh cash and maybe trimming or selling extended positions. When markets get so extended on a theme that non-theme stocks get whacked regularly and repeatedly, I start to deploy some of that cash into a small number of the seriously serially whacked that my analysis shows are underserving of said serial whacking.
As I deploy into serially whacked undervalued stocks, I also begin to short the market through puts on indices as well as stocks most sensitive to the prevailing mania’s fulcrum points.
Such is the state of things since I started Cassandra Unchained.
In only one case in my life did I massively leverage up a short position - and the RMBS and corporate CDS of the 2000s were uniquely leveraged in the right direction with a fairly concrete timeline.
Palantir Position – Short and Puts
I have written of my negative view on Palantir Technologies (PLTR) in Palantir’s New Clothes: Foundry, AIP, & the Failure of Reason as well as in Palantir: An Accounting. I continue to stand by everything I wrote over those ~15,000 words, plus visuals.
Too, Palantir trades at ~16X its IV15 according to my assumptions. It is a sand castle, supported for now by the AI applications narrative, a short in my book.